links for 2008-04-02

links for 2008-04-01

Digging up an old article on social networks that turned out to be prophetic (and a bonus!)

I stumbled upon (pushed by alexdc, I think) this old article, by Chris Allen, from early 2005 about the maxing-out of social connections (link below).

What strikes me is that nothing has changed – people are still racking up the social networks (any one for FriendFeed?) and adding folks in a frenzy. Indeed, I would say since the article was written folks have been trying to get a grip on ring-fencing their networks, getting a handle on the purposes of different social networks, and trying to balance close ties and weak ties.

I’m not the only one saying that the brain evolved to handle large social networks and that social software should step out of the way and let the brain manage these connections. Indeed, Chris lists many ways that people manage large social networks outside of social networking software (go read about it).

Two things are bubbling in my head that relate to this.

1) We do maintain social networks by doing what social creatures like us do: meeting folks, writing, calling, and so on. The contact reinforces the bond. And our brains juggle all the level of relationship, the connections wearing a path in our synapses. What is the equivalent of wearing a path through our social network, without the software trying to be too smart (BASAAP)?

2) And speaking of paths worn down: I think this ties into what I think is the part of the next wave of the Web* – semantics. I’ve mentioned before that I am not into a priori addition of semantics in a librarian kinda way. I believe in our usage pattern establishing the semantics (heh, one of my triumphs of ‘show vs. tell’). For example, the best way to decide where to put the paths on a commons (I’m from New England) is to wait a few months and see where the grass has been worn down. Another example, sort of, is when trying to understand tool needed during a repair, imagine painted hands marking every tool being picked up.

Link: Life With Alacrity: Dunbar Triage: Too Many Connections:

Ultimately social networking services — be it LinkedIn, Tribe.Net, Orkut, or LiveJournal — are making the problem worse, not solving it. Any engineer or information theorist can tell you that a system that only has amplifiers will be out of balance, and that you need attenuators in the system as well. Our current breed of social networking services have focused on amplifying our contacts not only because it serves us, but because it serves them. The more contacts that you make, the more people they potentially have in their service. However, in the long run this is unsustainable — a social networking service also has to be useful — merely amplifying your contacts isn’t enough.

BONUS! If you think the Dunbar Number is bullocks, read this and this by Chris. He looked at the distribution of guild sizes in World of Warcraft and Ultima Online. Hm, what do you think was the average guild size? And under what size were most of the guilds? Eh, go read it yourself. The graphics say it all.

*Oh, and if you wonder what else I see as part of the next wave of the Web: machines as part of our ‘social’ network. See infovore for more.

links for 2008-03-29

The turkey and the butcher

Just wanted to get this little ditty out:

I was listening to a very interesting Long Now seminar by Nassim Taleb, about his insight into randomness, predictability, and the like.

If you don’t know who he is, Taleb wrote a very popular book called ‘The Black Swan’, which takes it title from an old English saying that equated something impossible with seeing a black swan. Well, that saying got messed up when black swans were seen in Australia in the 18th century.

A great anecdote, created by his brother, he brought up to illustrate the overall point of the ‘black swan’ was the story about the turkey and the butcher.

Basically, the turkey views the butcher as this benevolent person, who constantly attends to the well-being of the turkey. And when the butcher comes one day to kill him, the turkey is astounded at the unpredictability of the butcher’s behavior. Of course, to the butcher, it was all very predictable. Down to the chop.

Moral of the story: You can’t always predict things based on past trends.

Corollary (for me at least): There are views that do make these ‘black swans’, these amazingly unpredictable events, predictable.

One other thing he mentioned that keeps me thinking and ties to the Long Now perspective is about the wisdom of old folks being a resource in how to deal with black swan moments. Hm…

links for 2008-03-24