‘Facebook fatigue’?

While I am part of the Facebook bashers (well, bashers of the current Facebook craze), I always feel that I am dead wrong, since so many folks are still signing up and using it.

But recent reports (link below) are hoping to sound the death-knell for Facebook and other social networking services.*

Eh, I’m an impartial skeptic and will only believe any slow-down after a few months, no matter how well the indictor (remember, only one indicator in one country) might support any of my arguments.

But, speaking of other indicators, Google has click-through issues with AdSense and MySpace also is showing a UK slowdown (see link below). Is this the bursting Bubble 2.0 (funny video) everyone loves to speculate about?

Nah. If anything, just the natural flow of users from network to network.

Link: ‘Facebook fatigue’ hits networking website | Business | The Guardian:

British internet users are falling out of love with Facebook and the social-networking site has shed 400,000 visitors between December and January, the website’s first decline in users.

Facebook remains the UK’s most popular social-networking site with 8.5 million unique users at the end of January, according to new figures from Nielsen Online. But that is down from 8.9 million in December.

*Indeed, we’ve seen in our research, already early last year, early-adopter burnout. Hence my harping about the rise of Vox and Twitter and Jaiku, closed circle social networking. I’m just wondering what’s next (and I have my ideas).

Twitter Stats: Relationship Distribution

Finally found out that Twitter has been publishing a few stats on usage.* Pretty interesting.

One that got me was the distribution of how many people per user if followed or following:

So, if you have about 10 followers and you’re following about 10 people then you’re Twittering away with a solid 50% of others like you using Twitter. If have more than 80 followers and you’re following more than 70 people then you are in the Twitter minority—about 10%.

Ok, I wished that had given some indication of active versus non-active. Right? I bet a ton of the non-active accounts are 10 and under follow(ed/ers).


Oh, just realized that this was indeed for active users. Cool.


*They’ve started this stats section with the Twitter stats on the Superbowl. Yup, I was definitely one of the twitterers that night. Alas, one of the sadder ones at the end.

links for 2008-03-04

Well, what do you know? Craig Venter going to Harvard as a visiting scholar

My wife pointed out, once more, a link to something on Venter (link below to blurb). I wonder if she wants me to work with him. [Nope, irrelevant inference.] And she has no idea I made another reference to him already today. Do I tell her?

This group he’s going to work with is cool.* This whole thing is cool. Could have been cooler is I were still there. It’s not at the medical school where I worked at in Boston, but the main university in Cambridge. But, I still would have gone out of my way to see him speak.

Link: J. Craig Venter named visiting scholar | HarvardScience:

J. Craig Venter, the visionary biologist and intellectual entrepreneur who was a leading figure in the decoding of the human genome, will join Harvard University as a visiting scholar at the University’s Origins of Life Initiative.

*As usual, I’ve met a few of the people where he’s going to work.

Entropy is over-rated. Long live Complexity! (Bonus: The Venter)

Does everything tend towards Entropy?

One of the first things we learn in chemistry is that everything tends towards entropy.

How can that be? Whereas Steven Johnson calls it the Long Zoom (in that you can zoom up and down levels of complexity) we constantly are seeing lower-order networks yielding a new level that itself begets new levels.

I lost my notes long ago, but I remember trying to grapple with the way sub-atomic particles glommed on to form atoms to form molecules to form auto-catalytic systems to form cells to form organisms to form societies to form <ad infinitum>. I tried to recapture that thought in an earlier essay, but there are a ton of other folks like Steven Johnson and the folks at the Santa Fé Institute who are also trying to understand the properties of complex systems.

But if all tends towards Entropy, how to we form these complex emergent systems in the first place? Do we have to Zoom all the way down to the fabric of the Universe to understand that single simple little principle that allowed a slight formation of a complex network that caused the domino effect that leads to today, a little principle that has been at War with Entropy since the formation of Everything?

Ufa!

A lot to think of. And I know I am way over simplifying somehow.

Bonus! The Unit of Measurement for Complexity

I don’t know if it exists (but I am sure Hugo can find it), but, in the course of writing a script for a graphic novel set in the far future (which I am set to overhaul under the ‘show-don’t-tell’ principle), I started thinking about how reductionist we are and that we have no way for describing complexity in a system (that I know of).

And, as you probably know my fascination (fanboi?) with Craig Venter, I thought he’d be an appropriate label for the measurement of Complexity – he’s re-written the books on the Genomic Age so many times and has ushers in the Age of Meta-Genomics.

Venters (Vn), a logarithmic scale of biological complexity. A virus is 3Vn, bacteria 3-10vn, fungi 10-30Vn, single cell 10-20Vn, complex 20-50Vn, planaria+ 50-100Vn, social arthropods 100-500Vn, reptiles, birds, fish, mammals, social networks…

My original thought was that the Venter would be a logarithmic scale of _biological_ complexity. But I suppose it could be a measure of complexity in general. Complexity can be measured by nested levels of networks, levels of connections between networks, and level of energy to maintain network (the inverse of Entropy, I suppose).

The symbol for Venters would be Vn, as V is widely used and taken for Voltage or Volume.

Any takers?

Heh, really being a geek.

On the balance of top-down and bottom-up

Kevin Kelly is on of the founders of the Long Now Foundation, which you all know I am pretty fond of. He wrote an article (link below) recently on the balance of bottom-up emergence and top-down guidance (not necessarily ‘control’, more like ‘leadership’), that has tipped my hand to finally writing down some thoughts.

Top-down or botton-up?

This topic of balance has been on my mind quite a bit – I have followed emergence (I call it ‘complexification‘) for many years now (heck, I’m a scientist at heart); just finished Steven Johnson’s book ‘Emergence‘, heard some great talks by Juan Enriquez and Alex Wright, and had my own personal struggle trying to understand megacorporations (aka ‘The Borg‘).

Kevin revisits (and discusses through the many comments on the article) his 10-year old book ‘Out of Control‘, a book on swarm theory, hive mind, bottom-up emergence. One thing he has learned is that bottom up is not enough.

He uses Wikipedia as an example of something that might seem bottom up – people ‘randomly’ contributing and editing encyclopedia articles, forming a global encyclopedia of knowledge from the collective actions of a collection of individual. Kevin points out that, actually, there is some level of top-down control in Wikipedia through a set of über-contributors who do have a modicum of editorial control.

The book ‘Emergence’ relates in many example how ‘dumb’ local behaviour in a network leads to a ‘higher-order’ behaviour. The famous example is an ant colony, where the sum total of the colony members’ behavior, based on simple rules, leads to a a comlex colony-level (colony as organism) behaviour.

Networks within networks

Alex Wright and Juan Enriquez point out, in their work, that one level network leads to members that then operate at a new level. My example for this is the body. Our cells go about their single-minded business, creating a higher order network that is the body. The body then is the unit item in a network that is our social network.

Yet, Kevin struggles with his interaction with the world of user-generated-content, the swarm of content that leads to something like Wikipedia. Coming from a publishing background, he sees the need for the editor. And I think that’s fine. The editor is actually from one level up in the network and not on the level of the swarm. As with the body, the control does come from the next level up, what ever the selected forces on the next level up are.

Global control from above

Drawing a parallel back to ants, Steven Johnson points out that the colony would be in trouble if one of the ants took a global view of the colony and tried to take over. That’s because the ants are part of the swarm and should not have global control. The colony has that global control, a control that comes from the selective pressures on the colony, not the ant. The selective pressures of the colony are its survival, interaction with other colonies, its relations with the environment.

I’d claim that what Kevin is struggling with is the publishing process of Wikipedia taps into the swarm perfectly. Contributors are elements following simple rules to just spew content into Wikipedia. But, WIkipedia as an organism needs to compete at another level, which gives Wikipedia a global mandate to force a selective pressure upon the members that constitute its internal network. Yet, this will only work if 1) the network one level down subsumes itself to the collective, and 2) that none of the members of the network one level down try to assume a global view or impact.

Corporations can learn from this

This all leads me to why large corporations are so dysfunctional: too many people taking the global view.

For a network to function, there needs to be rules of action for the members and rules of interaction between the members (think of workers as cells, departments as organs). In corporations, this is done through role definition. Indeed, I think it is wonderful how much individual responsibility my corporation give the workers. And that should be sufficient for emergent behaviours to be visible. And they are, as one can see with how products and services are created.

But, the impact of the corporation (think of it as the body) is at the corporation level (bodies in a social network) and the selection is at the corporation level. Hence, the members of the corporation should not have a global view, or attempt to commandeer the global view. And It think in corporations, the members tend to know the rules, do what the corporation asks, but never return and make sure that what ever potentially global effort they have been asked to do by the corporation does not violate the original rules of being a member of the collective. Likewise, I do not see the corporation exerting its global view in culling activities that violate the network rules and try to act on the level of the corporation (the global level).

I suppose that’s my long winded way of saying that employees keep screwing things up by taking on the role of the corporation and the corporation keeps screwing up by not exerting its influence on its employees who try to commandeer the global direction. (I’ve seen this happen too many times)

Summary

Yeah, global top-down works if it comes from the next layer of network above. It won’t work from within the network.

Do folks in the open source world (or others) agree?

Link: Kevin Kelly — The Technium:

Judged from where we start, harnessing the dumb power of the hive mind will always take us much further than we can dream. Judged from where we hope to end up, the hive mind is not enough; we need an additional top-down push.